Kentucky Derby Blog

Kentucky Derby 138 Blog 2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders: posted 4/14/09- Charles- So what are we dealing with this year? There are many in this year's field that have a legitimate shot at wearing the roses. The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby appears wide open and should prove to be a great wagering proposition. And all the more reason to have the services of our handicapping expertise to capitalize on this year's profit potential. East coast versus West coast. West Coast--------------------------- Papa Clem (Arkansas Derby winner) and, I Want Revenge (Gotham & Wood victor) have proved the mettle of the West Coast contingent...2 other top West Coast contenders, Chocolate Candy (Jenny Craig's horse trained by Northern California's top trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer) and Pioneer of the Nile- trained by Baffert---(say no more)..have yet to traverse the East's dirt tracks, the latter topping our exacta over Choco/ Candy in the Santa Anita Derby. a late scratch in the SA Derby, the Pamplemousse also appears formidable. East Coast--------------------------- Quality Road...Wow...what can you say..big speed figures big speed. Louisiana/ Arkansas------------------ Fresian Fire and Old Fashioned have confirmed trainer Larry Jones as a top member of his profession. Winning big races and desevedly so...real possibilities to build upon Hard Spun's and the ill fated Filly Eight Belles successes. But Old Fashioned's breakdown..has confirmed another of our astute observations..as we felt he never was a viable candidate for the Derby raoses.. Illinois----------------------------- Musket Man There are also a few other top contenders...stay tuned as we watch/analyze and strike when the iron is hot... All of the afore mentioned runners own realistic claims as true Contenders for the 2012 Kentucky Derby...but wait, there are more.... West Side Bernie, Stardom Bound, Beethoven, Giant Oak...possible wild cards and the real wild card...Dunkirk . . .the highly touted runner from the hi-profile-Tabor/ Pletcher combo...hopes to get what may be an elusive slot in the starting gate. In the event that more than 20 horses are entered to run Derby Day..preference is given to those horses with the most earnings in graded stakes races..which may leave Dunkirk outside looking in. And it is quite possible another horse may prove ready to give it a go- there is the European seeking to make history on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. But when it comes down to the wire...there is one big question that cannot be answered until about 6:30 pm on that day of days...which horse wants to run further then any 3 year old has run to date..the mile and a quarter that is required to have some lucky owner's colors painted at the Twin Spires that has been the goal of a lifetime. About Dual Qualifiers: posted 4/12/09- Charles- I have gotten a lot of questions about dual qualifiers and want to give everyone a basic outline of what they are talking about: The Experimental Free Handicap, published annually by The Jockey Club since 1935, is a weight-based assessment of the previous year’s leading two-year-olds, with the weights compiled for a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. This year’s weighting committee gave War Pass, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the high weight assignment of 127 pounds on the 2007 Experimental Free Handicap. The 127 pounds assigned to War Pass equals last year’s high weight, Street Sense, which was the highest assignment for a colt since Favorite Trick received 128 pounds on the 1997 Experimental Free Handicap. The filly division is headed by undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Indian Blessing at 123 pounds. The committee weighted a total of 105 males and 99 fillies. Eligible for weighting were all two-year-olds of 2007 that finished among the top four in graded or other unrestricted races with an added value of at least $75,000, run in the United States. Some handicappers use the Experimental rankings in conjunction with a horse's dosage index in determining which horses are "dual qualifiers" for the Kentucky Derby. Horses ranked within 10 pounds of the male topweight or who are a champion in another country and have a Dosage Index of 4.0 or less and a Center of Distribution of 1.25 or less are considered the dual qualifiers. These horses have statistically shown that they have a better chance at winning the Derby. Dosage index is a scientific classification of a horses pedigree, speed and stamina -among other criteria. Please keep in mind in recent years there has been some debate about the Dual Qualifiers theory..and while the jury may still be out, many of these horses do run well in at least one leg of the Triple Crown 2008 Dual qualifiers are highlighted below with an asterisk by their name. For more information about a horse's dosage index visit-www.chef-de-race.com. Last updated 10/15/11 2:00 pm EST